War, Diplomatic Blunders,
and Economic Woes Ensure
a One-Term Presidency.

Dispatch Number Eighteen

Like Father, Like Son.

DATELINE:
Friday, March 7, 2003.

SPECIAL to corndancer.com

By Mickey Miles in London

President George Bush is a one-term president, just like his father. I base this prediction not on a particular political leaning because I am independent when it comes to political parties. Climactic events, both those under the president's control and those beyond his control, will be his undoing in two years. Bear in mind that I have enormous respect for George Bush senior, who I believe was uniquely qualified by training and experience to be a good president. He was not a good politician and he met his superior in that regard in Bill Clinton. President Bush, whom I have met, has neither the experience nor the temperament to be the leader of the most powerful nation on earth. He is not gifted at politics.

Reason One: the War.

President Bush's poll numbers are sinking like a rock. For the first time since September 11, 2001, his popularity rating has dropped below 50 percent. On the surface, the reason for the president's plunging numbers is the coming war in Iraq. More and more Americans are lining up against the war. Saddam Hussein has succeeded in dividing NATO (North Atlantic Treaty Organization) with historical allies like France and Germany opposing the United States and Great Britain. The president's hawks argued that the United States should have hit Iraq months ago and not waited for United Nations Security Council approval. Their call for a quick decisive strike was trumped by Colin Powell's build-a-consensus policy. Rightly or wrongly, that policy has enabled opposition to the war to grow worldwide. Recent polls have shown that some Europeans believe the United States is more a danger to world stability than Iraq.

Mr. Bush's men and Mr. Bush himself hoped that the slow build-up of pressure would cause Hussein to throw in the towel and opt for a quick exit to some friendly foreign country. The thought was he could take his family and one hundred of his best friends, and live off $100 million he has squirreled away somewhere. The USA could then come in and do its regime change with Iraqi front men. Peace, stability, and democracy would once again prevail in Iraq. A democratic, progressive Iraq could serve as a model for the Middle East and spur change in the second object on the Axis of Evil, Iran.

This has not happened and will not happen. Furthermore, the United States and Great Britain cannot go back now. They cannot call their troops home without blood on their hands. For political and military reasons, a retreat leaving Hussein still in charge would embolden the sworn enemies of the United States and Great Britain. So there is no going back.

This leaves the United States with the uncertain task of invading Iraq. No one knows what kind of fight it will be, or how much it will cost. Could last three days or three years. Could cost $10 billion or $100 billion. It appears that Hussein's strategy is to pull his most trusted troops back into Baghdad and make the invasion a costly one in terms of human lives and suffering. Once the bodies of Iraqi children, dead and dying, are shown on television screens around the world, this invasion will inflame Muslims worldwide. It will make the United States look a big bully, swaggering and throwing its weight around.

Reason Two: Diplomatic Blunder.

President Bush made a big mistake when he issued his Axis of Evil statement. Dear Leader in North Korea, already paranoid and armed with a 1.1 million-man army, found himself identified and vilified by Mr. Bush. It is not that Dear Leader doesn't deserve it. There should be worldwide condemnation of a regime that holds its people by the throat and throttles them into starvation.

But when Dear Leader saw that Mr. Bush planned to invade Iraq, he figured that he must be next. He resorts to playing the nuclear card. Now North Korea is busy preparing to build nuclear weapons. Some say he already has one or two. On the day Roh Moo Hyun was sworn in as president of South Korea, North Korea fired a missile into the Gulf of Japan. The timing was not coincidental. Those missiles can carry nuclear weapons and reach Japan or South Korea and American troops.

The United States, Japan, South Korea, et al cannot permit North Korea to brandish nuclear weapons and blackmail all of Asia. This is easily the most dangerous situation in the world today. An out-of-control crazy dictator, surrounded by a starving populace, now armed with nuclear weapons: Who knows where this will lead?

Reason Three: the Economy.

Despite all you might read about the pending economic recovery beginning as soon as this business with Iraq is concluded, it won't happen. The great American consumer, the engine of the expected recovery, is tapped out. Americans are starting to pull in horns. Saddled with record amounts of household debt and threatened with job loss and impending war, consumers are beginning to cut back.

With a stock market that has shed $10 trillion from the dot.com bust, add the highest cost per gallon for gasoline in decades and you have a restive population. The president gets the credit for a booming economy, rightly or wrongly. The president also gets the blame for a declining economy, rightly or wrongly. Don't believe it? Ask the senior Bush.

Tax cuts have failed to spur the economy. Removing taxes on dividends has not helped. Interest rate cuts have helped some, but those same cuts hurt senior citizens, who depend on a high return from certificates of deposit to pay bills. Their income from CDs has been sliced in half. Guess what? These people vote in droves.

Conclusion.

President Bush will find his poll numbers plunging further when body bags start arriving on US shores. Once a president loses his popularity, it is almost impossible for him to regain it. Mr. Bush will go down as the president who squandered the good will and support he enjoyed as a result of September ll. His father lost to Bill Clinton because of the economy, and the candidacy of Ross Perot. The younger Bush will lose because of the war and the economy.

One term. Like father, like son.

War, Diplomatic Blunders, and Economic Woes Ensure a One-Term Presidency.